26 Nov 2015
France remains robust despite terror attacks - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Julien Manceaux, analyst at ING bank noted that the figures just released by INSEE showed that the number of people unemployed in France fell by 1000.
Key Quotes:
"This follows a 23.8k fall in September - the biggest decline in two years. The big story is that it is the first time since 2010 that unemployment decreased two months in a row. Unemployment is still 3.5 million people in the second largest Eurozone economy and we need to see it fall further for the economic recovery to gain momentum.
Consumer confidence, which stagnated in November as figures showed yesterday, is on a positive trend since the end of 2014, which has materialized in higher consumer spending and higher retail confidence in the most recent PMI surveys.
Confidence relies on a sounder labour market and it is doubtful that private consumption can continue to grow at a rhythm of 0.4% QoQ (the average on the three first quarters of 2015) without more employment growth. The good news from the November consumer survey was that consumers are again more confident about the labour market.
Recent activity surveys in the most job-creating sector (services) however show that the September and October drops in unemployment are unlikely to be repeated at current levels of confidence in this sector. Therefore, it is too early to bank on a strong unemployment drop in Q4, but we still believe that 2016 will slowly see better figures."
Key Quotes:
"This follows a 23.8k fall in September - the biggest decline in two years. The big story is that it is the first time since 2010 that unemployment decreased two months in a row. Unemployment is still 3.5 million people in the second largest Eurozone economy and we need to see it fall further for the economic recovery to gain momentum.
Consumer confidence, which stagnated in November as figures showed yesterday, is on a positive trend since the end of 2014, which has materialized in higher consumer spending and higher retail confidence in the most recent PMI surveys.
Confidence relies on a sounder labour market and it is doubtful that private consumption can continue to grow at a rhythm of 0.4% QoQ (the average on the three first quarters of 2015) without more employment growth. The good news from the November consumer survey was that consumers are again more confident about the labour market.
Recent activity surveys in the most job-creating sector (services) however show that the September and October drops in unemployment are unlikely to be repeated at current levels of confidence in this sector. Therefore, it is too early to bank on a strong unemployment drop in Q4, but we still believe that 2016 will slowly see better figures."