2 Dec 2015
AUD: Australian Q3 GDP numbers paints a stronger picture of the economy - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that the Australia’s Q3 GDP rose +0.9%/qtr, a hair above expectations and annual growth of 2.5% easily beating the RBA’s 2.25% forecast detailed in the Bank’s SoMP last month.
Key Quotes
“Overall it’s a mixed report with Trade strong (net exports adding +1.5%pts), but domestic demand went backwards. Our thoughts are here but unlike last year there is little in today's report to suggest the RBA could cut in Feb next year.”
“RBA Gov Stevens delivered a speech titled ’After the Boom’ in Perth. Once again, the Gov adopted a ‘glass half full’ outlook via “...further adjustment in the resources sector is still ahead”, but believed that many producers are “well placed” . Although stating that the terms of trade may fall further, he highlighted that the economy’s adjustment to developments since the peak in mining as “quite respectable’. His Q&A session reinforced why the Bank is reluctant to cut rates when he stating “We shouldn’t just rely on monetary policy alone, in any country, to drive growth. Other policies actually are ultimately going to be more effective”. That said the RBA is open to cutting rates if it helps, but we don’t expect the RBA will need to act on its explicit easing bias.”
“The ACGB 04/26 bond auction drew the lowest-ever btc for this maturity, at 1.76 despite being a bond that underlies the physical bond basket.”
Key Quotes
“Overall it’s a mixed report with Trade strong (net exports adding +1.5%pts), but domestic demand went backwards. Our thoughts are here but unlike last year there is little in today's report to suggest the RBA could cut in Feb next year.”
“RBA Gov Stevens delivered a speech titled ’After the Boom’ in Perth. Once again, the Gov adopted a ‘glass half full’ outlook via “...further adjustment in the resources sector is still ahead”, but believed that many producers are “well placed” . Although stating that the terms of trade may fall further, he highlighted that the economy’s adjustment to developments since the peak in mining as “quite respectable’. His Q&A session reinforced why the Bank is reluctant to cut rates when he stating “We shouldn’t just rely on monetary policy alone, in any country, to drive growth. Other policies actually are ultimately going to be more effective”. That said the RBA is open to cutting rates if it helps, but we don’t expect the RBA will need to act on its explicit easing bias.”
“The ACGB 04/26 bond auction drew the lowest-ever btc for this maturity, at 1.76 despite being a bond that underlies the physical bond basket.”