7 Dec 2015
EUR/USD to still face pressure – ANZ
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at ANZ, notes that the ECB delivered a policy easing, but distinctly underwhelmed market expectations, sending EUR/USD up four big figures or around 2.5%.
Key Quotes
“The result was a lot of noise in markets, but we caution against over reading, and ask the question has anything fundamentally changed? The Fed continues to inch towards policy normalisation and the extension of the EU QE program will still take the ECB’ s balance sheet to about 35% of GDP over the coming 15 months (roughly EUR3.7trn). This liquidity will still help support a world coping with USD liquidity reduction, leaving EUR/USD under pressure, and NZD/EUR supported.”
“However, the ECB does hold some lessons for markets going into the first Fed hike since 2006. Clearly market positioning is becoming more influential, and the ability of markets to absorb changes in view is limited. This suggests that next week’s FOMC meeting – which is fully priced – has risks of a counter consensus USD reaction to a Fed hike.”
Key Quotes
“The result was a lot of noise in markets, but we caution against over reading, and ask the question has anything fundamentally changed? The Fed continues to inch towards policy normalisation and the extension of the EU QE program will still take the ECB’ s balance sheet to about 35% of GDP over the coming 15 months (roughly EUR3.7trn). This liquidity will still help support a world coping with USD liquidity reduction, leaving EUR/USD under pressure, and NZD/EUR supported.”
“However, the ECB does hold some lessons for markets going into the first Fed hike since 2006. Clearly market positioning is becoming more influential, and the ability of markets to absorb changes in view is limited. This suggests that next week’s FOMC meeting – which is fully priced – has risks of a counter consensus USD reaction to a Fed hike.”