15 Dec 2015
US CPI preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD clocked a high of 1.1060 levels before falling back to 1.10 handle as the European stock markets advanced on the back of a technical correction in the oil. The immediate focus now is on the US November CPI figure.
Focus on core CPI
Oil prices slipped in November and the falling trend in prices gained pace in December. The weakness in the oil prices is well known and thus the headline figure printing below the estimate of 0.0%m/m and 0.4%y/y would not come as a surprise for the markets. Consequently, the traders would be more interested to see if the core figure is holding up well.
The USD could rise across the board if the core inflation beats estimates as it would signal the inflation is moving towards the Fed’s target of annualised 2% inflation despite losses in oil prices. An upbeat number ahead of the Fed rate decision would increase the odds of 25bps hike. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected core CPI, along with a weak headline print may not receive much attention from the markets as Fed liftoff is widely considered as a done deal now.
An uptick in the headline CPI alone would not cheer markets since oil prices have dropped sharply in December, which means a rebound in the CPI would be short-lived.
EUR/USD Technical levels
At 1.10 handle, the immediate support is seen at 1.0981 (Dec 3 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.0927 (Dec 11 low), which, if taken out shall expose 1.0890 (38.2% of 1.1495-1.0517). On the other hand, the immediate resistance is seen at 1.1033 (200-DMA) and 1.1059 (100-DMA), above which the pair could rise to 1.1087 (Sep 3 low), which, if taken out could see the pair test supply at 1.1121 (61.8% of 1.1495-1.0517).
Focus on core CPI
Oil prices slipped in November and the falling trend in prices gained pace in December. The weakness in the oil prices is well known and thus the headline figure printing below the estimate of 0.0%m/m and 0.4%y/y would not come as a surprise for the markets. Consequently, the traders would be more interested to see if the core figure is holding up well.
The USD could rise across the board if the core inflation beats estimates as it would signal the inflation is moving towards the Fed’s target of annualised 2% inflation despite losses in oil prices. An upbeat number ahead of the Fed rate decision would increase the odds of 25bps hike. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected core CPI, along with a weak headline print may not receive much attention from the markets as Fed liftoff is widely considered as a done deal now.
An uptick in the headline CPI alone would not cheer markets since oil prices have dropped sharply in December, which means a rebound in the CPI would be short-lived.
EUR/USD Technical levels
At 1.10 handle, the immediate support is seen at 1.0981 (Dec 3 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.0927 (Dec 11 low), which, if taken out shall expose 1.0890 (38.2% of 1.1495-1.0517). On the other hand, the immediate resistance is seen at 1.1033 (200-DMA) and 1.1059 (100-DMA), above which the pair could rise to 1.1087 (Sep 3 low), which, if taken out could see the pair test supply at 1.1121 (61.8% of 1.1495-1.0517).