7 Jan 2016
CAD: Governor Poloz speech on divergence in monetary policy in the limelight - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that BoC’s Governor Poloz will be speaking on the topic of divergence in monetary policy now that the Fed has taken its first step towards normalizing its fed funds rate.
Key Quotes
“The Bank touched on this theme in the communique accompanying the December FAD and the speech is the last opportunity ahead of the January meeting for Poloz to guide market expectations. While growth has slowed materially relative to the Bank's forecast in Q4, the Bank may wish to see the evolution of several other developments (Fed reaction function, the transitory nature of the Q4 slowdown, and prospective fiscal stimulus from the federal budget) before considering additional policy accommodation.”
“We will look to the tone of the speech to gauge the Bank's patience on this front. The text of his speech will hit the wires at 810 ET and there will be an audience Q&A to follow with a more formal press conference expected to begin around 915 ET. Elsewhere, the Ivey PMI for December will be released at 1000 ET and the market expects the headline index to moderate to 55.0 from the elevated 63.6 print in the prior month.”
“The US is set to take a backseat to Canada with jobless claims serving as the highlight. TD sees initial claims falling to 276k, in line with market consensus at 275k. Should our forecast prove accurate, the 4-week moving average will dip to 275.5k. TD expects continuing claims to rise by 34k to 2232k, while the market consensus is for them to remain at 2200k."
Key Quotes
“The Bank touched on this theme in the communique accompanying the December FAD and the speech is the last opportunity ahead of the January meeting for Poloz to guide market expectations. While growth has slowed materially relative to the Bank's forecast in Q4, the Bank may wish to see the evolution of several other developments (Fed reaction function, the transitory nature of the Q4 slowdown, and prospective fiscal stimulus from the federal budget) before considering additional policy accommodation.”
“We will look to the tone of the speech to gauge the Bank's patience on this front. The text of his speech will hit the wires at 810 ET and there will be an audience Q&A to follow with a more formal press conference expected to begin around 915 ET. Elsewhere, the Ivey PMI for December will be released at 1000 ET and the market expects the headline index to moderate to 55.0 from the elevated 63.6 print in the prior month.”
“The US is set to take a backseat to Canada with jobless claims serving as the highlight. TD sees initial claims falling to 276k, in line with market consensus at 275k. Should our forecast prove accurate, the 4-week moving average will dip to 275.5k. TD expects continuing claims to rise by 34k to 2232k, while the market consensus is for them to remain at 2200k."