8 Jan 2016
US December payrolls report: Fade the ADP strength - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, expects the US economy to create 193K jobs in December.
Key Quotes
“While still consistent with the continued absorption of slack in the labor market, the pace of hiring is expected to slow relative to the last couple of months. We look to pro-cyclical sectors to add the bulk of the gains but acknowledge the risk of a weaker outturn in manufacturing and from the impact that warmer weather will have on the retail, and leisure and hospitality sectors.”
“Wage growth should also be relatively weak, rising by just 0.1% m/m due to unfavorable calendar effects. In recognition of the deceleration in economic activity through the end of 2015, we expect that the trend in hiring will slow to between 175K and 200K. Note that this deceleration is still consistent with the Fed continuing to withdraw stimulus, with the next 25bps hike expected in March.”
Key Quotes
“While still consistent with the continued absorption of slack in the labor market, the pace of hiring is expected to slow relative to the last couple of months. We look to pro-cyclical sectors to add the bulk of the gains but acknowledge the risk of a weaker outturn in manufacturing and from the impact that warmer weather will have on the retail, and leisure and hospitality sectors.”
“Wage growth should also be relatively weak, rising by just 0.1% m/m due to unfavorable calendar effects. In recognition of the deceleration in economic activity through the end of 2015, we expect that the trend in hiring will slow to between 175K and 200K. Note that this deceleration is still consistent with the Fed continuing to withdraw stimulus, with the next 25bps hike expected in March.”