15 Jan 2016
US retail sales: Today's big release - Rabobank
FXStreet (Bali) - Today’s big release is US retail sales for December, notes Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research, Asia-Pacific, at Rabobank, followed by US PPI and US Michigan consumer confidence.
Key Quotes
Today’s big release is US retail sales for December. Expectations are not full of much seasonal cheer. Headline spending is seen -0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%, though the control group ex. autos and gasoline is seen a healthy 0.4%. Certainly one has to say that the US consumer – still the lion’s share of the US economy - is not what he/she once was and it’s hard to say when – or if – they will be again.
After that we see US PPI, which is going to underline the deflationary pressures in the economy that Mr. Bullard has just sat up and noticed: even ex- food and energy PPI is expected at just 0.3% y-o-y today. We then have the Fed’s Dudley speaking on the economy and policy before moving on to US industrial production, which is expected -0.2% after a -0.6% print in November. (Are you spotting something of a pattern here? Mr. Bullard isn’t – yet.)
Then we Michigan consumer confidence for January, which as we know has been far from quiet. Headline expectations are for a small rise to 92.9 from 92.6, but it will also be interesting to see if consumer inflation expectations are moving up, down, or are unchanged: the one-year measure was 2.6% in December, has been on a downward trend since March 2011, and is heading for the trough seen over 2008-10, at which time the Fed brought in QE. Now it’s raising rates. Happy Friday!
Key Quotes
Today’s big release is US retail sales for December. Expectations are not full of much seasonal cheer. Headline spending is seen -0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%, though the control group ex. autos and gasoline is seen a healthy 0.4%. Certainly one has to say that the US consumer – still the lion’s share of the US economy - is not what he/she once was and it’s hard to say when – or if – they will be again.
After that we see US PPI, which is going to underline the deflationary pressures in the economy that Mr. Bullard has just sat up and noticed: even ex- food and energy PPI is expected at just 0.3% y-o-y today. We then have the Fed’s Dudley speaking on the economy and policy before moving on to US industrial production, which is expected -0.2% after a -0.6% print in November. (Are you spotting something of a pattern here? Mr. Bullard isn’t – yet.)
Then we Michigan consumer confidence for January, which as we know has been far from quiet. Headline expectations are for a small rise to 92.9 from 92.6, but it will also be interesting to see if consumer inflation expectations are moving up, down, or are unchanged: the one-year measure was 2.6% in December, has been on a downward trend since March 2011, and is heading for the trough seen over 2008-10, at which time the Fed brought in QE. Now it’s raising rates. Happy Friday!