18 Jan 2016
EURUSD: Likely to take cues from ECB and PMIs data - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that an ECB meeting and the preliminary Jan PMIs are the main events this week which are likely to impact the direction of EURUSD this week.
Key Quotes
“The conservative wing of the Governing Council has Draghi in a bind but that should not stop him from pushing a strong dovish line, noting heightened downside risks to inflation and a preparedness to employ additional tools if necessary.
Bias: EUR/USD’s failure to break above 1.10 despite aggressive liquidation of risk in recent sessions may prove telling. EUR capital flow dynamics remain decidedly negative, the region posting five basic balance deficits in the last six months. March Fed hike risk remains underpriced amid still healthy housing, labour market and service sector trends too. EUR a strong sell into 1.10 if seen.
Little going for GBP amid weak activity data, strong pro-Brexit polling and next to no chance of a BoE hike in the year ahead, if not longer. EUR/GBP at 0.77 not unreasonable but we’d be neutral for the time being given how the currency has fallen in the last month (-5%, the weakest G10 currency vs the USD).
CHF’s enfeebled safe haven characteristics on show yet again early in the New Year, the currency struggling yet again to muster any serious strength despite strong risk aversion across global markets. USD/CHF a buy into 0.9845 if seen.”
Key Quotes
“The conservative wing of the Governing Council has Draghi in a bind but that should not stop him from pushing a strong dovish line, noting heightened downside risks to inflation and a preparedness to employ additional tools if necessary.
Bias: EUR/USD’s failure to break above 1.10 despite aggressive liquidation of risk in recent sessions may prove telling. EUR capital flow dynamics remain decidedly negative, the region posting five basic balance deficits in the last six months. March Fed hike risk remains underpriced amid still healthy housing, labour market and service sector trends too. EUR a strong sell into 1.10 if seen.
Little going for GBP amid weak activity data, strong pro-Brexit polling and next to no chance of a BoE hike in the year ahead, if not longer. EUR/GBP at 0.77 not unreasonable but we’d be neutral for the time being given how the currency has fallen in the last month (-5%, the weakest G10 currency vs the USD).
CHF’s enfeebled safe haven characteristics on show yet again early in the New Year, the currency struggling yet again to muster any serious strength despite strong risk aversion across global markets. USD/CHF a buy into 0.9845 if seen.”