18 Jan 2016
EUR/USD forecast: eyes on oil, risk – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is trading back below the 1.0900 handle on Monday following a better tone in the risk-associated space.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “continued to grind higher last week but this week is facing tougher resistance at 1.10/1.1060 – recent highs and the 200 day ma and these should act as an effective near term ceiling. Key resistance remains the 1.1028/71 2014-2016 downtrend and 55 week ma and we view the market as bearish while capped here. Our target remains the 1.0523 recent low”.
In addition, Analyst at Danske Bank Mikael Milhoj suggested “EUR/USD saw good support on Friday from the batch of weak US data out in the afternoon, as US rates came under pressure on expectations that the latest US data weakness could lead the Fed to postpone further tightening. This is clearly a risk if US data continue to surprise on the downside and the fact that EUR/USD has been remarkably stable around 1.07-1.10 since New Year is testament to the stretched positioning short the cross”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “continued to grind higher last week but this week is facing tougher resistance at 1.10/1.1060 – recent highs and the 200 day ma and these should act as an effective near term ceiling. Key resistance remains the 1.1028/71 2014-2016 downtrend and 55 week ma and we view the market as bearish while capped here. Our target remains the 1.0523 recent low”.
In addition, Analyst at Danske Bank Mikael Milhoj suggested “EUR/USD saw good support on Friday from the batch of weak US data out in the afternoon, as US rates came under pressure on expectations that the latest US data weakness could lead the Fed to postpone further tightening. This is clearly a risk if US data continue to surprise on the downside and the fact that EUR/USD has been remarkably stable around 1.07-1.10 since New Year is testament to the stretched positioning short the cross”.