UK: Labour market to remain healthy while inflation likely to stall - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that the UK labour market remains healthy, and we expect the unemployment rate to drop to 5.1% in November (with a small chance of a 5.0% print), while total pay excluding bonuses should continue to decelerate to dip below 2% y/y.

Key Quotes

“Improving labour market conditions have supported momentum in retail sales through recent chopiness, but we see downside risks to consensus on account of warm weather that delayed clothing sales in the month.

We see no change in December’s inflation figures, with 0.1% y/y expected for total and 1.2% for core inflation. This leaves inflation 0.3p.p. below the BoE’s November forecast as energy prices continue to weigh on the outlook, and while we see inflation remaining below 0.5% until mid-2016.”