19 Jan 2016
UK CPI preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD trading on a positive note in Europe is a rare sight these days since GBP is being offered on falling BOE rate hike bets on account of faltering economy and low inflation. The pair is trading around 1.4275; up 0.23% on the day ahead of the monthly CPI data and BOE Carney’s speech.
Focus on Core CPI
The headline CPI is seen rising 0.1% m/m and 0.2% y/y. However, the focus us likely to be on the core CPI figure as the headline number is at a risk of missing estimates on account of a sharp fall in the oil prices in December. The core figure is seen unchanged at 1.2% y/y.
A below zero headline figure coupled with a drop in the core number could send GBP/USD to fresh multi-year lows. Meanwhile, a rebound in CPI along with an uptick in core figure could trigger a sharper technical recovery in the GBP/USD pair.
Carney speech could hog limelight
Mark Carney is set to deliver a speech on the outlook for the first time this year. The traders would look out for comments on wage growth, inflation and possible hint at the timing of the BOE rate hike. If BOE intends to hike rates later this year, the telegraphing may resume at today’s event. Again, dovish comments could kill Sterling.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4351 (5-DMA + Jan 12 low), ahead of the major hurdle at 1.4439 (hourly 200-MA) and 1.4473 (23.6% of 1.5240-1.4237). Hawkish comments from Carney coupled with a strong core CPI figure could see the pair break above 1.4473 and test 1.45 handle. On the other hand, support is seen at 1.4227 (May 2010 low), under which the pair could drop to 1.4160 (falling channel support). Dovish comments from Carney could open doors for a sell-off to 1.4052 (Feb 2009 low).
Focus on Core CPI
The headline CPI is seen rising 0.1% m/m and 0.2% y/y. However, the focus us likely to be on the core CPI figure as the headline number is at a risk of missing estimates on account of a sharp fall in the oil prices in December. The core figure is seen unchanged at 1.2% y/y.
A below zero headline figure coupled with a drop in the core number could send GBP/USD to fresh multi-year lows. Meanwhile, a rebound in CPI along with an uptick in core figure could trigger a sharper technical recovery in the GBP/USD pair.
Carney speech could hog limelight
Mark Carney is set to deliver a speech on the outlook for the first time this year. The traders would look out for comments on wage growth, inflation and possible hint at the timing of the BOE rate hike. If BOE intends to hike rates later this year, the telegraphing may resume at today’s event. Again, dovish comments could kill Sterling.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4351 (5-DMA + Jan 12 low), ahead of the major hurdle at 1.4439 (hourly 200-MA) and 1.4473 (23.6% of 1.5240-1.4237). Hawkish comments from Carney coupled with a strong core CPI figure could see the pair break above 1.4473 and test 1.45 handle. On the other hand, support is seen at 1.4227 (May 2010 low), under which the pair could drop to 1.4160 (falling channel support). Dovish comments from Carney could open doors for a sell-off to 1.4052 (Feb 2009 low).