19 Jan 2016
Chinese economic data softer than expected - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the Chinese economic data (Q4 GDP, retail sales, industrial output, and fixed asset investment were a little softer than expected.
Key Quotes
“The data are reported to a tenth of a decimal point, but this gives a misleading impression of the precision. While many are particularly skeptical of the accuracy of the GDP measure (6.8% year-over-year, down from 6.9% in Q3), many other estimates do not put growth that far from the official estimate, though of course there are some who claim China is growing at less than half the reported pace.
Even if we concede the likelihood that Chinese growth is slower than the official estimate, we suggest the overall size of the economy may be larger than reported. There is a range of activity, like in other countries, that may not be including in the calculations. We also note that China has agreed to adopt a more robust data collection procedure as prescribed by the IMF.”
Key Quotes
“The data are reported to a tenth of a decimal point, but this gives a misleading impression of the precision. While many are particularly skeptical of the accuracy of the GDP measure (6.8% year-over-year, down from 6.9% in Q3), many other estimates do not put growth that far from the official estimate, though of course there are some who claim China is growing at less than half the reported pace.
Even if we concede the likelihood that Chinese growth is slower than the official estimate, we suggest the overall size of the economy may be larger than reported. There is a range of activity, like in other countries, that may not be including in the calculations. We also note that China has agreed to adopt a more robust data collection procedure as prescribed by the IMF.”