19 Jan 2016
Brazil expected to tighten its policy – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities see the Brazilian central bank hiking the benchmark rate at tomorrow’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“In Brazil we expect, in line with the consensus, the Selic rate to be hiked by 50 bps to 14.75%”.
“This is more as a signal to markets to instil confidence, however, as it looks like Copom hikes are producing diminishing returns, while the fiscal angle remains the bigger deal for investors and confidence”.
“We have argued that inflation will return on a downward trajectory in 2016, but from a very high level near 11%”.
“The stabilization of inflation is in the meantime causing a sharp adjustment in inflation expectations that could eventually compromise the BCB’s own outlook”.
“While the economy is already faring badly, it is difficult to argue against another upside tweak to rates in order to restore control of inflation expectations”.
Key Quotes
“In Brazil we expect, in line with the consensus, the Selic rate to be hiked by 50 bps to 14.75%”.
“This is more as a signal to markets to instil confidence, however, as it looks like Copom hikes are producing diminishing returns, while the fiscal angle remains the bigger deal for investors and confidence”.
“We have argued that inflation will return on a downward trajectory in 2016, but from a very high level near 11%”.
“The stabilization of inflation is in the meantime causing a sharp adjustment in inflation expectations that could eventually compromise the BCB’s own outlook”.
“While the economy is already faring badly, it is difficult to argue against another upside tweak to rates in order to restore control of inflation expectations”.