11 Feb 2016
The worst of 2015, all over again – TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that it shouldn’t come as a big surprise—falling oil prices and volatile markets have impacted activity at the start of 2016.
Key Quotes
“Our early warning models suggest sharp pullbacks in Chinese exports, US trade, Canadian IP, and EM IP.
We also show that current shocks can forecast consensus GDP and CPI revisions, with year-ahead US and G7 GDP and inflation forecasts potentially falling by 0.5pp over the next 3-6 months if there is no strong bout of data.
We also find evidence to suggest that equity markets provide limited signals to the economy during a bull market. But, as an equity bear market builds, equities offer a signal over and above the macro data. This may risk accelerating GDP forecast downgrades if equities do not rally from here.
The release of much of this downbeat data comes at a critical juncture, as data released over the next six weeks will be key to setting the tone for when the next Fed hike can come.”
Key Quotes
“Our early warning models suggest sharp pullbacks in Chinese exports, US trade, Canadian IP, and EM IP.
We also show that current shocks can forecast consensus GDP and CPI revisions, with year-ahead US and G7 GDP and inflation forecasts potentially falling by 0.5pp over the next 3-6 months if there is no strong bout of data.
We also find evidence to suggest that equity markets provide limited signals to the economy during a bull market. But, as an equity bear market builds, equities offer a signal over and above the macro data. This may risk accelerating GDP forecast downgrades if equities do not rally from here.
The release of much of this downbeat data comes at a critical juncture, as data released over the next six weeks will be key to setting the tone for when the next Fed hike can come.”