12 Feb 2016
All eyes on US retail sales and Euro area GDP – Lloyds Bank
Research Team at Lloyds Bank, suggests that the health of the US economy and whether it is sufficiently strong to warrant a near-term rise in interest rates will be the dominant question for financial markets.
Key Quotes
“The main US data release is January retail sales and we expect it to have remained soft. Policymakers will continue to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to assess how financial market volatility evolves and what impact it may have on the wider economy.
The ‘flash’ estimate of Euro area Q4 GDP is expected to show a continued moderate pace of expansion, despite significant support from the ECB and from lower oil prices. Surveys point to growth of around 0.4%q/q, but some of the ‘hard’ data suggest an outturn of 0.3%q/q may be more likely, with a positive contribution coming from domestic demand, while external demand is likely to be somewhat weaker.”
Key Quotes
“The main US data release is January retail sales and we expect it to have remained soft. Policymakers will continue to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to assess how financial market volatility evolves and what impact it may have on the wider economy.
The ‘flash’ estimate of Euro area Q4 GDP is expected to show a continued moderate pace of expansion, despite significant support from the ECB and from lower oil prices. Surveys point to growth of around 0.4%q/q, but some of the ‘hard’ data suggest an outturn of 0.3%q/q may be more likely, with a positive contribution coming from domestic demand, while external demand is likely to be somewhat weaker.”