12 Feb 2016
US key events for next week: FOMC minutes and CPI - Danske
Analysts from Danske Bank note that next’s week main events in the US calendar are the FOMC minutes and the inflation report.
Key Quotes:
“In the US on Wednesday next week, we get the minutes from the FOMC meeting of 26-27 January. Here we will get a broader insight into the different views among the FOMC members. It could attract some attention as Yellen’s testimony was more or less just a repetition of the January FOMC statement.”
“ However, since the meeting, uncertainty in financial markets and risk of a systemic crisis have both increased which, in our view, should keep Fed on hold until the September meeting. In addition, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the coming week and these occasions will also be watched closely.”
“CPI inflation figures for January are due on Friday. Though FOMC is targeting PCE core inflation, it is also monitoring the development in CPI core inflation. PCE core has been subdued in recent years, but the trend in CPI core has been upward sloping and thus more encouraging for the Fed. In line with consensus, we expect that CPI core rose 0.2% m/m in January leaving the annual growth rate unchanged at 2.1% y/y.”
“Several manufacturing figures are due next week which will be followed closely as the manufacturing sector is struggling with the strong USD, weak activity in manufacturing globally and low oil investments. Two regional indices (Empire and Philly due Tuesday and Thursday, respectively) will be watched for any signs of what to expect from ISM manufacturing. Our main scenario is that the ISM will stabilise and recover, but at a slow pace.”
Key Quotes:
“In the US on Wednesday next week, we get the minutes from the FOMC meeting of 26-27 January. Here we will get a broader insight into the different views among the FOMC members. It could attract some attention as Yellen’s testimony was more or less just a repetition of the January FOMC statement.”
“ However, since the meeting, uncertainty in financial markets and risk of a systemic crisis have both increased which, in our view, should keep Fed on hold until the September meeting. In addition, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the coming week and these occasions will also be watched closely.”
“CPI inflation figures for January are due on Friday. Though FOMC is targeting PCE core inflation, it is also monitoring the development in CPI core inflation. PCE core has been subdued in recent years, but the trend in CPI core has been upward sloping and thus more encouraging for the Fed. In line with consensus, we expect that CPI core rose 0.2% m/m in January leaving the annual growth rate unchanged at 2.1% y/y.”
“Several manufacturing figures are due next week which will be followed closely as the manufacturing sector is struggling with the strong USD, weak activity in manufacturing globally and low oil investments. Two regional indices (Empire and Philly due Tuesday and Thursday, respectively) will be watched for any signs of what to expect from ISM manufacturing. Our main scenario is that the ISM will stabilise and recover, but at a slow pace.”