15 Feb 2016
USD/JPY: BoJ intervention concerns waning - Scotiabank
Analysts at Scotiabank explained that they don’t think the time is ripe for the BoJ to intervene in the FX market—or at least to intervene effectively.
Key Quotes:
"Past experience suggests a number of factors have to align to bolster the chances of successful FX intervention—the level of the currency, fundamental valuation, the broader policy backdrop and market positioning.
While BoJ officials might consider some of these elements to be in place, others are not.
Specifically, the JPY has strengthened—sharply—since the start of February but the currency remains relatively weak in he context of its longer‐term trends. Secondly, buying USD or EUR might not go down well in Washington or Frankfurt.
Verbal intervention, yes. Outright JPY sales, no—at least not right now."
Key Quotes:
"Past experience suggests a number of factors have to align to bolster the chances of successful FX intervention—the level of the currency, fundamental valuation, the broader policy backdrop and market positioning.
While BoJ officials might consider some of these elements to be in place, others are not.
Specifically, the JPY has strengthened—sharply—since the start of February but the currency remains relatively weak in he context of its longer‐term trends. Secondly, buying USD or EUR might not go down well in Washington or Frankfurt.
Verbal intervention, yes. Outright JPY sales, no—at least not right now."