16 Feb 2016
RBA minutes: Key themes from SoMP to be repeated - Westpac
The RBA Feb meeting minutes will be released at00.30 GMT todau, with key themes from the Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be reiterated, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
The RBA Feb meeting minutes will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The key themes from the Statement on Monetary Policy should be repeated. Note too that we heard from Governor Stevens at the parliamentary testimony last Friday so risks around the minutes should be low.
The RBNZ’s Q1 inflation expectations survey is out 1pm Syd/3pm NZ/10am Sing. Governor Wheeler made much of "anchored expectations" in his speech earlier this month, so markets will probably respond to any shift from the current 1.85% level (for 2yr ahead expectations). During the Lon/NY session, there's also a dairy auction which could result in another price fall if futures' -8% prediction is to be believed.
The Bank of Korea is expected by all forecasters to keep rates at 1.5%. Taiwan Jan trade data is also released.
Consensus for UK Jan CPI is -0.7%m/m and 0.3%y/y. Oil prices continue to weigh and core inflation is higher, though still modest at an expected 1.3%y/y. The Germany ZEW survey should show expectations fall to 0.
In the US, the median forecast for the Empire State manufacturing index is a rise to -10.50. The strong US dollar continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector. The Feb NAHB housing market index is expected again at 60.
Key Quotes
The RBA Feb meeting minutes will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The key themes from the Statement on Monetary Policy should be repeated. Note too that we heard from Governor Stevens at the parliamentary testimony last Friday so risks around the minutes should be low.
The RBNZ’s Q1 inflation expectations survey is out 1pm Syd/3pm NZ/10am Sing. Governor Wheeler made much of "anchored expectations" in his speech earlier this month, so markets will probably respond to any shift from the current 1.85% level (for 2yr ahead expectations). During the Lon/NY session, there's also a dairy auction which could result in another price fall if futures' -8% prediction is to be believed.
The Bank of Korea is expected by all forecasters to keep rates at 1.5%. Taiwan Jan trade data is also released.
Consensus for UK Jan CPI is -0.7%m/m and 0.3%y/y. Oil prices continue to weigh and core inflation is higher, though still modest at an expected 1.3%y/y. The Germany ZEW survey should show expectations fall to 0.
In the US, the median forecast for the Empire State manufacturing index is a rise to -10.50. The strong US dollar continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector. The Feb NAHB housing market index is expected again at 60.