17 Feb 2016
Germany: Flash February HICP inflation to soften to 0.1% yoy - SocGen
Research Team at Societe Generale, expects German flash HICP to print noticeably lower at 0.1% yoy in February compared to 0.4% yoy in January.
Key Quotes
“This softness in the headline component is likely to be a result of persistent weakness in energy prices. Unlike January where positive base effects from the energy component pushed the headline up, there will be no positive energy-component base effects in February. We expect food prices on a yoy basis to continue to soften for a third month in a row.
The core component should print at 1.2% yoy in February, on our estimates. We expect German HICP inflation to average 0.7% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, while the core metric should average 1.3% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.”
Key Quotes
“This softness in the headline component is likely to be a result of persistent weakness in energy prices. Unlike January where positive base effects from the energy component pushed the headline up, there will be no positive energy-component base effects in February. We expect food prices on a yoy basis to continue to soften for a third month in a row.
The core component should print at 1.2% yoy in February, on our estimates. We expect German HICP inflation to average 0.7% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, while the core metric should average 1.3% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.”