17 Feb 2016
Retail investors continue to prefer G10 to EM currencies - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, notes that according to the latest Nomura Individual Investor Survey (1-2 February), retail investor views on the Japanese equity market remain positive for the next three months.
Key Quotes
“The January Eco-watcher survey on the household activity-related future conditions DI also inched up to 48.8 from 47.2 in December, which suggest retail investors’ risk sentiment has been relatively resilient so far. Recent renewed weakness in Japanese equity prices can have a negative impact on their risk appetite and we will monitor their risk-taking activities closely.
Expectations for JPY weakness against USD have weakened among retail investors. The share of retail investors expecting USD/JPY depreciation over the next three months increased to 55.2% from 48.6% in January. The reference level has increased to 121.24 (noon 1 February) from 119.77 in January, which likely changed retail investors’ view on more negative for USD/JPY, although the BOJ announced additional easing on 29 January.
At the same time, retail investors’ preference for USD among major currencies has remained high. The preference DI for USD inched up to 38.4 in February from 38.8 in January. The strong preference for USD assets suggests retail investors will continue to look for dip-buying opportunities in USD-denominated assets, limiting downside risks for USD/JPY in our view. In contrast, the popularity of the two EM currencies in the survey, CNY and BRL, declined further in February.”
Key Quotes
“The January Eco-watcher survey on the household activity-related future conditions DI also inched up to 48.8 from 47.2 in December, which suggest retail investors’ risk sentiment has been relatively resilient so far. Recent renewed weakness in Japanese equity prices can have a negative impact on their risk appetite and we will monitor their risk-taking activities closely.
Expectations for JPY weakness against USD have weakened among retail investors. The share of retail investors expecting USD/JPY depreciation over the next three months increased to 55.2% from 48.6% in January. The reference level has increased to 121.24 (noon 1 February) from 119.77 in January, which likely changed retail investors’ view on more negative for USD/JPY, although the BOJ announced additional easing on 29 January.
At the same time, retail investors’ preference for USD among major currencies has remained high. The preference DI for USD inched up to 38.4 in February from 38.8 in January. The strong preference for USD assets suggests retail investors will continue to look for dip-buying opportunities in USD-denominated assets, limiting downside risks for USD/JPY in our view. In contrast, the popularity of the two EM currencies in the survey, CNY and BRL, declined further in February.”