13 Nov 2013
Flash: China unveils very general guidelines for further reform - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wrapped up the Third Plenary Session of its 18th Congress with little surprises for further reform, notes Zhiwei Zhang, Asian Economist at Nomura.
Key Quotes
"Overall, the reform guidelines are largely in line with our expectations, which are not high in terms of immediate results (see China: A blueprint for reform, 31 October 2013)."
"The meeting communiqué also mentions reforms in the education, employment, pension, health care, and environment sectors, but conspicuously absent was anything on reforming population policy—the market had expected the one-child policy would be adjusted further."
"While we may need to wait for the full document, which may come out in 10 days or so, to assess the impact of this comprehensive reform, we do not really see surprises in the meeting communiqué. We maintain our view that GDP growth peaked in Q3 and will slow to 7.5% in Q4 and 6.9% in 2014."
Key Quotes
"Overall, the reform guidelines are largely in line with our expectations, which are not high in terms of immediate results (see China: A blueprint for reform, 31 October 2013)."
"The meeting communiqué also mentions reforms in the education, employment, pension, health care, and environment sectors, but conspicuously absent was anything on reforming population policy—the market had expected the one-child policy would be adjusted further."
"While we may need to wait for the full document, which may come out in 10 days or so, to assess the impact of this comprehensive reform, we do not really see surprises in the meeting communiqué. We maintain our view that GDP growth peaked in Q3 and will slow to 7.5% in Q4 and 6.9% in 2014."