1 Mar 2016
INR: A reprieve from the budget - ANZ
Irene Cheung, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, suggests that the Indian government has retained the budget deficit target for FY16/17 at 3.5% of GDP, against market fears of fiscal slippage.
Key Quotes
“Our economists now see a good chance of a 25bp cut by the RBI, possibly after the February inflation prints on 14 March.
Market reaction has been mixed – more positive for the bond market than the stock market. At any rate, this will provide a reprieve to the INR.
That said, the long-term up-channel in USD/INR will likely remain intact, with support coming in at around 67.0-67.5. We see scope for INR to gain ground in the coming weeks.”
Key Quotes
“Our economists now see a good chance of a 25bp cut by the RBI, possibly after the February inflation prints on 14 March.
Market reaction has been mixed – more positive for the bond market than the stock market. At any rate, this will provide a reprieve to the INR.
That said, the long-term up-channel in USD/INR will likely remain intact, with support coming in at around 67.0-67.5. We see scope for INR to gain ground in the coming weeks.”