8 Mar 2016
ECB's (further) easing and the EM space – TDS
Strategists at TD Securities have assessed the probability of additional stimulus by the ECB and its impact on the EM space.
Key Quotes
“With the ECB in the spotlight, whatever decision the Bank takes, there will be consequences for Ems”.
“A decision from the ECB to add further stimulus on Thursday is likely to be received as risk positive by the markets”.
“Therefore, in the eventuality of depo rate cuts and the augmentation of the asset purchase program, we would look for an extension of the recent EM positive momentum. The opposite is likely in case of disappointment”.
“But the ECB decision could also have nearly immediate consequences for select EMEA economies. One day after the ECB decision, Poland will announce interest rates. ECB easing could also reverberate onto Hungary’s policy decision and embolden Turkey to ease after the appointment of the new governor in April”.
Key Quotes
“With the ECB in the spotlight, whatever decision the Bank takes, there will be consequences for Ems”.
“A decision from the ECB to add further stimulus on Thursday is likely to be received as risk positive by the markets”.
“Therefore, in the eventuality of depo rate cuts and the augmentation of the asset purchase program, we would look for an extension of the recent EM positive momentum. The opposite is likely in case of disappointment”.
“But the ECB decision could also have nearly immediate consequences for select EMEA economies. One day after the ECB decision, Poland will announce interest rates. ECB easing could also reverberate onto Hungary’s policy decision and embolden Turkey to ease after the appointment of the new governor in April”.