15 Mar 2016
US: Focus on a full slate of economic releases and presidential primaries - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the focus shifts to the US today with a full slate of economic releases and presidential primaries that will clarify the contest.
Key Quotes
“Headline retail sales may be weighed down by weakness in gasoline prices, but the GDP component is expected to have risen by 0.2% after the 0.6% rise in January. To put it in perspective, last January and February, this core measure of retail sales fell a combined 0.7%. Core producer prices are expected to have risen 1.2% year-over-year from 0.6% in January due largely to the base effect.
The Empire Manufacturing survey is among the first economic readings for the new month while January business inventories are expected to be flat. Neither tends to be market movers. The FOMC begins its two-day meeting that is expected to result in no change in policy, a reiteration of the risks being nearly balanced and a change in the dot plots that will likely recognize scope for three hikes this year.
Regarding the Republican primaries today, the focus is on Florida and Ohio. Trump has come on strong in Florida and a defeat for Rubio in his home state could force him out. In Ohio, Governor Kasich is expected to win. On the Democratic side, Clinton is expected to beat Sanders in most of the contests except Missouri. Sanders beat Clinton in Michigan and a victory in Illinois, where Clinton lived for many years, would signal a continued slugfest to the convention.”
Key Quotes
“Headline retail sales may be weighed down by weakness in gasoline prices, but the GDP component is expected to have risen by 0.2% after the 0.6% rise in January. To put it in perspective, last January and February, this core measure of retail sales fell a combined 0.7%. Core producer prices are expected to have risen 1.2% year-over-year from 0.6% in January due largely to the base effect.
The Empire Manufacturing survey is among the first economic readings for the new month while January business inventories are expected to be flat. Neither tends to be market movers. The FOMC begins its two-day meeting that is expected to result in no change in policy, a reiteration of the risks being nearly balanced and a change in the dot plots that will likely recognize scope for three hikes this year.
Regarding the Republican primaries today, the focus is on Florida and Ohio. Trump has come on strong in Florida and a defeat for Rubio in his home state could force him out. In Ohio, Governor Kasich is expected to win. On the Democratic side, Clinton is expected to beat Sanders in most of the contests except Missouri. Sanders beat Clinton in Michigan and a victory in Illinois, where Clinton lived for many years, would signal a continued slugfest to the convention.”