15 Mar 2016
US Retail Sales: Dominated by downwards revisions to January - ING
Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, notes that the US retail sales for February look a mixed bag.
Key Quotes
“The headline and ex-auto figures both fell -0.1% mom a little better than consensus expectations. But the control group, which strips out some of the more volatile items, was a little softer.
But it is the revisions to previous months’ data that are the key takeaway from this release. January headline sales were revised down from 0.2% mom to -0.4% mom. The ex-autos figure was taken down from 0.1% mom to -0.4% mom too. And the control group of sales was also revised lower to 0.2% mom from 0.6% previously.
Whilst this is not a game changer as far as Federal Reserve meeting on 16 March is concerned, it is a timely reminder not to get too carried away with the recent run of data. Markets have got a little ahead of themselves in recent days – talking up the prospects of an April rate hike (unlikely in our view), and adjusting to their over-gloomy prognosis a few weeks ago. Some further downward adjustment in bond yields and the USD seems an appropriate response.”
Key Quotes
“The headline and ex-auto figures both fell -0.1% mom a little better than consensus expectations. But the control group, which strips out some of the more volatile items, was a little softer.
But it is the revisions to previous months’ data that are the key takeaway from this release. January headline sales were revised down from 0.2% mom to -0.4% mom. The ex-autos figure was taken down from 0.1% mom to -0.4% mom too. And the control group of sales was also revised lower to 0.2% mom from 0.6% previously.
Whilst this is not a game changer as far as Federal Reserve meeting on 16 March is concerned, it is a timely reminder not to get too carried away with the recent run of data. Markets have got a little ahead of themselves in recent days – talking up the prospects of an April rate hike (unlikely in our view), and adjusting to their over-gloomy prognosis a few weeks ago. Some further downward adjustment in bond yields and the USD seems an appropriate response.”