16 Mar 2016
Risk assets like idea of a less hawkish Fed - BBH
Analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, note that the US dollar tumbled across the board after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and signaled only two rate hike during 2016.
Key Quotes:
“The Federal Reserve halved the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year from four to two. The market has been moving toward this as well after having thought the would be no hikes this year. The dollar sold off. The dollar-bloc currencies and emerging market currencies are have rallied sharply. Risk assets in general like the idea of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.”
“The Fed's dot plots point to a Fed somewhat less confident on the near-term outlook but maintained the expectations of four hikes next year and in 2018. The long-term equilibrium Fed funds rate was cut to 3.25% from 3.5%. The Fed maintained when it expects inflation to reach the two percent target, but changed the path by cutting this year's forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%."
“The FOMC statement was little changed. The changes in the statement are mostly in the first paragraph where it offers its economic assessment. It notes that despite the global economic and financial developments, Us economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.”
“Fed funds futures have rallied. The market has reduced the chances of a June hike. If the Fed were to hike rates in June, fair value would be about 50 bp. The market was nearly there earlier today, but now is back to 44.5 bp, which is where it was on March 3-4, before the employment data.”
Key Quotes:
“The Federal Reserve halved the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year from four to two. The market has been moving toward this as well after having thought the would be no hikes this year. The dollar sold off. The dollar-bloc currencies and emerging market currencies are have rallied sharply. Risk assets in general like the idea of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.”
“The Fed's dot plots point to a Fed somewhat less confident on the near-term outlook but maintained the expectations of four hikes next year and in 2018. The long-term equilibrium Fed funds rate was cut to 3.25% from 3.5%. The Fed maintained when it expects inflation to reach the two percent target, but changed the path by cutting this year's forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%."
“The FOMC statement was little changed. The changes in the statement are mostly in the first paragraph where it offers its economic assessment. It notes that despite the global economic and financial developments, Us economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.”
“Fed funds futures have rallied. The market has reduced the chances of a June hike. If the Fed were to hike rates in June, fair value would be about 50 bp. The market was nearly there earlier today, but now is back to 44.5 bp, which is where it was on March 3-4, before the employment data.”