19 Nov 2013
Flash: RBA a non event, but… - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Tim Davis, Global Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities said the release of the RBA Nov was a non event. Yet, notably, included in this minutes is that the ‘A$ remained uncomfortably high’.
Key Quotes:
“The release of the RBA Nov was a non event. Yet, notably, included in this minutes is that the ‘A$ remained uncomfortably high’.(as echoed by Governor Glenn Stevens earlier this month)”.
“In addition, while the RBA included their usual comment that they would not ‘close off the possibility of reducing it (rates)further’, they excluded their 2nd part of the mantra that we should not interpret the signal as ‘an imminent intention to reduce them (rates)’”.
“In contrast, earlier paras state that while the RBA acknowledges that growth in near term will be below trend, they are of the view that ‘In time, non-resource business investment was also expected to increase’ and that ‘growth can be reasonably be expected to pick up thereafter.’”
“This is in line with the upbeat view by the RBA in the Nov SoMP where they have mused that there is potential for a strong recovery in the non-mining investment than currently anticipated”.
“It is clear that the RBA maintains its neutral bias. We continue to target an unchanged cash rate of 2.5% for the rest of the year until +25bps for Nov 2014”.
Key Quotes:
“The release of the RBA Nov was a non event. Yet, notably, included in this minutes is that the ‘A$ remained uncomfortably high’.(as echoed by Governor Glenn Stevens earlier this month)”.
“In addition, while the RBA included their usual comment that they would not ‘close off the possibility of reducing it (rates)further’, they excluded their 2nd part of the mantra that we should not interpret the signal as ‘an imminent intention to reduce them (rates)’”.
“In contrast, earlier paras state that while the RBA acknowledges that growth in near term will be below trend, they are of the view that ‘In time, non-resource business investment was also expected to increase’ and that ‘growth can be reasonably be expected to pick up thereafter.’”
“This is in line with the upbeat view by the RBA in the Nov SoMP where they have mused that there is potential for a strong recovery in the non-mining investment than currently anticipated”.
“It is clear that the RBA maintains its neutral bias. We continue to target an unchanged cash rate of 2.5% for the rest of the year until +25bps for Nov 2014”.