28 Mar 2016
US March NFP to grow a little more than 200k - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US employment growth has been extremely steady, despite what appears to be month-to-month vagaries.
Key Quotes
“Consider that the three-month average of non-farm payroll growth through February stood at 238k. The average over the past 24-months has been 242k. The consensus is for March nonfarm payrolls to grow a little more than 200k.
The fact that full employment is being approached is not evident in hourly earnings data, which is expected to sustain the 2.2% year-over-year pace. We expect average hourly earnings to begin rising again in Q2.
One of the concerns about the labor market is the decline in corporate profits reported alongside the second revision of GDP. Corporate profits fell 7.8% in Q4 15 and 11.5% over the course the year. The idea is that squeezing profit margins will see businesses retrench; slowing their hiring and investment plans.”
Key Quotes
“Consider that the three-month average of non-farm payroll growth through February stood at 238k. The average over the past 24-months has been 242k. The consensus is for March nonfarm payrolls to grow a little more than 200k.
The fact that full employment is being approached is not evident in hourly earnings data, which is expected to sustain the 2.2% year-over-year pace. We expect average hourly earnings to begin rising again in Q2.
One of the concerns about the labor market is the decline in corporate profits reported alongside the second revision of GDP. Corporate profits fell 7.8% in Q4 15 and 11.5% over the course the year. The idea is that squeezing profit margins will see businesses retrench; slowing their hiring and investment plans.”