Fed: Two hikes in 2016, most likely in June and December - Rabobank

Stefan Koopman, Market Economist at Rabobank, suggests that in the latest FOMC minutes, Esther George was alone in her dissent, she was not alone in her view.

Key Quotes

“According to the minutes, a couple of participants saw a hike in March as appropriate. This shows that at the hawkish end of the spectrum, participants are ready to hike at any meeting now.

While the minutes confirm that there is a lot of uncertainty in the Committee about the economic outlook, with risks tilted to the downside, it is clear that hikes are on the agenda of each meeting now. Therefore we stick to our call of two hikes in 2016, most likely in June and December.

From this point on, it would require a significant deterioration in the US economic outlook for the FOMC participants to remove more hikes from their anticipated trajectory for 2016.”