U.S. review and preview: Oil surges, dollar depreciates - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a review & preview of U.S. events.

Key Quotes:

"Review 

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for March showed that the median 3-year ahead inflation expectations measure declined slightly to 2.50%, giving back some of the pickup seen from January to February. Looking at the details, the middle income group's ($50-$100k) inflation expectations increased to 2.79% from 2.54%, while the low (<$50k) and high (>$100k) income groups’ inflation expectations declined to 2.45% and 2.42% from 2.69% and 2.61%, respectively. 

Preview 

Weekly chain store sales: Recent colder temperatures put a damper on spring apparel shopping. Looking ahead, there are no “shopping holidays” in April, but the promise of warmer weather should help department store activity in coming weeks. Import prices: The pace of declines in import prices appeared to have moderated in recent months, as the downward pressure on domestic goods prices stemming from the stronger dollar might be waning. Renewed increases in prices of imported consumer goods could raise some upside risks to the inflation outlook and as such is worth watching. Crude oil prices surged in March, and the broad trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar depreciated during the month. Both movements should place upward pressure on import prices in March. As a result, Consensus forecasts a 1.0% m-o-m increase in import prices in March. 

US Budget: Federal government expenditures should remain a slight positive for growth in the coming years, after contributing negatively to growth in prior years. Consensus expects a budget deficit of $104.0bn in March, as the US is in the middle of tax refund season."