US retail sales preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?

US March advance retail sales figure due for release today is likely to show turnover rose 0.1% as opposed to a 0.1% drop in the previous month. A much sharper rebound is expected in retail sales ex Autos (0.4% from -0.1%).

Core retail sales, which does not include Auto and Gas, is seen rising 0.3%. Meanwhile, control group is seen rising 0.3% after having stalled in the previous month.

Dollar bid ahead of the data release

The dollar is strong against most majors, except British Pound which is largely unchanged against the greenback. Meanwhile, EUR succumbed to the rebounding greenback. EUR/USD pair is threatening to drop below 1.13 handle after having clocked a high of 1.1391 in Asia. The drop today comes after back to back rounding top candle stick formations on the daily chart.

EUR/USD could extend losses on strong retail sales

A rebound in retail sales as expected/more-than-expected could push up treasury yields and make dollar further attractive against the common currency, which is feeling the heat of drop in Eurozone sovereign bond yields (due to IMF’s dismal forecasts and industrial production figure). In such a case, the pair could extend losses to 1.1236 (38.2% of 1.0463-1.1714).

On the contrary, a weaker-than-expected retail sales figure could see dollar trim its gains, although a recovery in EUR/USD may not happen given the pair has finally witnessed a break below 1.1330-1.1340 support today following week long consolidation. Moreover, it would take a horribly weak figure to push EUR/USD back to near 1.14 levels.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot currently trades around 1.1305. Break below 1.13 would expose 1.1236 (38.2% of 1.0463-1.1714 + rising trend line drawn from Mar 2015 low-April 2015 low and extended). Below the same, support at 1.1144 (Mar 24 low) stands exposed.

Conversely pair may have a relook at 1.14 if immediate hurdle at 1.1327 (Apr 6) is taken out. On the larger of scheme things, resistance at 1.1465 (Apr 12 high) should be breached on closing basis in order for the pair to see renewed bullish momentum.