BoE: Markets still price a 30% chance of a cut before year-end - Danske

According to analysts from Danske Bank, the most relevant fact from Super-Thursday were the minutes that mentioned several times “referendum” and “uncertainties”.

Key Quotes:

“Due to the UK’s upcoming EU in/out referendum, the minutes attracted more attention and both ‘referendum’ and ‘uncertainties’ are mentioned several times.”

“It says that ‘Brexit’ would increase economic uncertainty, which could hit the demand side in the short run. Also, the supply side would take a hit due to uncertainties about regulations, labour supply and so on.”

“Most interestingly, the BoE says it ‘would have to make careful judgements about the net effects’...‘on demand, supply and inflation’ and ‘whatever the outcome of the referendum, the MPC would use its tools to achieve its inflation remit’. The latter we interpret as a sign that the BoE is ready to ease monetary policy if necessary. It has several instruments in this case: it could lower the Bank Rate from 0.50% to 0.00% (currently, the BoE has ruled out negative rates), it could resume the QE programme (APF) and it could ease credit through an extension of the ‘Funding for Lending Scheme’ (FLS).”

“Markets still price in a 30% probability of a cut before year-end.”