3 May 2016
USD/JPY: fresh 18-month lows, RBA to shake it up more?
USD/JPY is scrapping the barrel of a fresh 18-month low in lighter trade with Japan being out for holidays and the USD/JPY down to test 106.00 with a low scored just recently at 106.03, sending Nikkei futures to test lows close to 16000.
USD/JPY has been under immense pressure since the BoJ failed to weaken the currency with their negative rate cut and then staying on hold having looked as though they had run out of ammunition and sending stock markets in a panic.
The dollar is also weakening across the board in light of a recovery in commodities and the Fed also staying put with the as their window of opportunity to hike again this year is rapidly narrowing.
RBA preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?
RBA to leave rates unchanged today - ANZ
The risk events for today come with the RBA decisions and the Yen could be part of the action in a significant manner depending on the outcome. Should the RBA cut rates, this could send a terrifying message to markets as being one of the last G6 nation Central Banks to final succumb to negative economic pressures.
But, it will also depend on the accompanying statement. If the RBA manage to sugarcoat such a move with their intentions as being timing a rate cut now, rather than waiting as being fortuitous, and with some optimism for global factors and the domestic economy, the Yen might otherwise not run away with it too far in the absence of absolute risk aversion. AUD/JPY will be one to watch.
USD/JPY levels
USD/JPY low remains at 106.03 and trades below the 4hr 20 sma at 107.15. The 105.20 weekly sma is now on the radar, tucked in below the 27th Dec 2013 highs of 105.43. Thereafter, we have the channel between that 27th De high and 4th July 2014 lows at 101.06.
USD/JPY has been under immense pressure since the BoJ failed to weaken the currency with their negative rate cut and then staying on hold having looked as though they had run out of ammunition and sending stock markets in a panic.
The dollar is also weakening across the board in light of a recovery in commodities and the Fed also staying put with the as their window of opportunity to hike again this year is rapidly narrowing.
RBA preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?
RBA to leave rates unchanged today - ANZ
The risk events for today come with the RBA decisions and the Yen could be part of the action in a significant manner depending on the outcome. Should the RBA cut rates, this could send a terrifying message to markets as being one of the last G6 nation Central Banks to final succumb to negative economic pressures.
But, it will also depend on the accompanying statement. If the RBA manage to sugarcoat such a move with their intentions as being timing a rate cut now, rather than waiting as being fortuitous, and with some optimism for global factors and the domestic economy, the Yen might otherwise not run away with it too far in the absence of absolute risk aversion. AUD/JPY will be one to watch.
USD/JPY levels
USD/JPY low remains at 106.03 and trades below the 4hr 20 sma at 107.15. The 105.20 weekly sma is now on the radar, tucked in below the 27th Dec 2013 highs of 105.43. Thereafter, we have the channel between that 27th De high and 4th July 2014 lows at 101.06.