26 Nov 2013
Flash: EUR/USD resilient between ECB and Fed – Rabobank
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, commented that the current uncertainties regarding the start of the Fed’s QE tapering and the ‘wait-and-see’ stance in the ECB would likely be behind the EUR/USD resilience.
Key Quotes
“Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD”.
“Although the Fed did not rule out tapering in December in its October policy meeting, we suspect that the Fed will remain on hold until March and that the USD will take its time in clawing itself back to stronger levels. This implies that the ECB will have little choice but to retain its dovish threats”.
“Even so we expect that EUR/USD will remain well supported at least into year end and most likely until it is clear that the Fed are on the brink of tapering. We see risk of EUR/USD holding above the 1.30 area until H2 next year”.
Key Quotes
“Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD”.
“Although the Fed did not rule out tapering in December in its October policy meeting, we suspect that the Fed will remain on hold until March and that the USD will take its time in clawing itself back to stronger levels. This implies that the ECB will have little choice but to retain its dovish threats”.
“Even so we expect that EUR/USD will remain well supported at least into year end and most likely until it is clear that the Fed are on the brink of tapering. We see risk of EUR/USD holding above the 1.30 area until H2 next year”.