Fed: Odds of a June rate hike have risen to 30% - SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the odds of a June Fed rate hike have risen to 30% according to Bloomberg, but the vast majority of people think the UK’s EU membership referendum will be enough to stay the Fed’s hand.

Key Quotes

“For those tempted to look for an early move, July is the favourite, and the odds there, have increased to above 50%. I should add that SG’s US economics team doesn’t share that view, expecting a Q4 move, but the contrast with the UK where the chances of a July hike (pot-referendum, remember) remain firmly at zero. On the one hand, they can’t fall any further (!), but the contrast between the UK MPC outlook and the US FOMC outlook is stark enough to keep me bearish of sterling.”