Fed: Full rate hike is now not priced until after March next year - BNZ

Research Team at BNZ, suggests that the clear highlight of the week from the US is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday.

Key Quotes

“While no one expects the Fed to raise rates, the post meeting statement, the economic projections and FOMC Chair Yellen’s Press Conference will be closely watched.

On the back of the weak non-farm payrolls report and speeches by Brainard and Yellen, rate hike expectations have been pared back significantly, with markets pricing a rate hike by July at around 25% compared to 80% in the lead up to that payroll report and a full rate hike is now not priced until after March next year.”

NZ: Expect a 0.5% q/q lift in production-based GDP - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, expects a 0.5% q/q lift in NZ’s production-based GDP (+2.6% y/y), which is in line with the consensus and a touch below the RBNZ
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RBNZ: August cut more likely than not - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, suggests that the market is currently pricing in 48% odds of a RBNZ cut in August, and a terminal OCR of 2.01% by February/March
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