Brexit: Latest Update: We’ve Seen the Bounce - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities predicts a REMAIN win (estimated range is 50.2% to 51.4% Remain).

Key Quotes:

"With nearly 20% of the votes now counted, counted votes show a dead heat, with 50.1% of votes for Remain and 49.9% for Leave.

Results in the last 45 minutes have supported the big bounce we expected, and gains from here are expected to be smaller. While our models have tracked fairly well so far, there remains over 80% of votes to be counted. So we need to see consolidation around these numbers in order for our forecast to hold tonight. One big theme we’ve observed tonight are that there is a clear polarisation of results, with those expected to vote Leave voting stronger Leave than expected, and vice versa for Remain.

Betting odds have been all over the place, and reports suggest that some betting markets are not accepting online bets any more. But for what it’s worth, BetFair shows that Remain has moved back to the more likely outcome in betting markets, back just below 60%.

Cable has bounced to around 1.4450, and US 10yr yields are down about 8bps from yesterday’s London close."