Latest Update: Leave Now Favoured - TDS

TD Securities’ models point to a Leave win. 

Key Quotes

Our models now suggest a small Leave majority. With about 60% of all votes counted, Leave is ahead by 51.6%. We note that there are a few important Remain voting areas to report (particularly in London), but we are doubtful of their ability to shift the final vote in favour of Remain.

While it is not mathematically impossible for Remain to pull ahead, the surprises seen so far tonight suggest stronger Leave support in Leave areas, but less stronger than expected Remain support in Remain areas. There remain a large number of London boroughs to report (which will be strong Remain), but we worry that the likelihood of large upside surprises in these areas is low. Betfair odds point to a 94% probability of a Leave win.

On the market side, we’ve broken through some key levels, with cable breaking below 1.35 and US 10yr treasury yields down nearly 25bps to 1.44%. A G7 statement seems likely to us, warning markets that they are vigilantly watching developments, but questions early on are likely to cycle to how quickly political uncertainty rises in the UK with how long the government can last