New chapter in UK economic history commences - Rabobank

Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that in what has been a very tight race, the British people have decided that Britain should leave the EU.

Key Quotes

“Although the ‘Remain’ camp received strong backing from the business sector and international organisations (and more generally had run a campaign targeted at the homo rationalis), the ‘Leave’ camp, which put a strong emphasis on self-control and sentiments that struck a chord with disgruntled voters, ultimately prevailed. A new chapter in UK economic history is about to commence and financial markets will watch any further political gyrations with elevated scrutiny.

We expect the EU to take a tough line. Given the widespread rise of populist and eurosceptic parties across the continent, we expect that most Member States will showcase a hawkish approach. Please note as well that there are elections coming up in Spain (this Sunday), the Netherlands (March 2017), France (Spring 2017), Germany (August 2017) and Italy (no later than May 2018, but there will be a constitutional referendum on Senate reforms already this year).

On a global scale, a sell-off in risky assets and general move towards safe havens is likely to see renewed downward pressure on EM currencies.”