TRY expected to depreciate further in the next months – Danske Bank

The Turkish currency is seen losing further ground in the next months, according to analysts at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“In light of the changed political landscape in Turkey, we have lifted our USD/TRY forecasts to 3.12 in 1M (from 2.95), 3.20 in 3M (2.98), 3.25 in 6M (3.03) and 3.35 in 12M (3.05)”.

“Near term, we expect lingering political uncertainty to weigh on capital inflows into Turkey and thereby on TRY. Medium term, we expect Turkey’s relatively solid economic growth to provide some support for the TRY”.

“In this regard, we note the experience in other emerging market countries, e.g. Thailand, which has had relative currency stability in periods of state of emergency. We do not believe the current political chaos in Turkey will have any broader impact on global risk appetite and the performance of risky assets”.