UK: Unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.9% - TDS

Research Team at TDS, thinks that UK’s June’s 3mma unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.9%, in line with consensus.

Key Quotes

“Though we see some scope for a better than expected print if lower hiring due to Brexit fears was mirrored with fewer quits during the month. Headline wage growth is likely to have firmed up to 2.5% y/y (mkt 2.4%) but the more important core measure is more likely to remained in its usual 2.3-2.4% y/y range seen so far this year.

Markets may also pay a bit more attention to the jobless claims figure than usual, given that it gives us fresher and post- Brexit July data, whereas the rest of the report is based on June data (and more specifically, is based on average April-June data). Markets are looking for a 9K rise in claims, in line with its average change over the last few months.”