US: August NFP gains has consistently disappointed consensus – Deutsche Bank

Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that today’s big payrolls report has the potential in theory to reprice Fed September rate hike expectations nearer to or even above 50% (34% currently but down from 42% last Friday), especially if we print notably above 200k.

Key Quotes

“Remember that just after the Brexit vote you had to go out to the end of 2017 to see the first Fed hike being priced. Although trying to predict a fairly random number is a mugs game I would take the low side of the 180k consensus today (DB at 160k). A lot of people were a bit nervous about the seasonal distortion in last month's strong report and, over the last 5 years the initially-reported August nonfarm payroll gains has consistently disappointed consensus and by an average of 52k.”