US: Retail sales data push back against a September rate rise - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, notes that the US August retail sales disappointed, falling 0.3% m/m with the control group easing 0.1% m/m, marking its first drop in the headline print in four months and dragged the 3m average down to +0.2% in August from +0.3% in July and +0.7% in June.

Key Quotes

“Retail sales are a little over 35% of US private consumption activity and spending on services tends to be more stable. But at the margin, the data point to a loss of momentum in consumption following the robust 4.4% saar gain in real private consumption in Q2. It may be that the consumer is pausing for breath and high levels of consumer confidence and still robust jobs growth should underpin healthy consumer activity. It could also be that some election uncertainty may be starting to creep in and subdue spending patterns. Whatever the explanation, the data push back against a September rate rise.

US producer prices were unchanged in August m/m and y/y, indicating an absence of pipeline inflation pressures. Core producer prices rose 0.1% m/m and 1.0% y/y. There was nothing in the data to ignite expectations of accumulating inflation. Headline inflation was restrained by weakness in food and fuel prices.”