US Elections: Presidential debate is a wild card - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that today’s first US Presidential debate is a wild card, in the sense that the outcome is unknown. 

Key Quotes

“In recent weeks, the polls have drawn close.  In early August, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com, the gold standard of the poll analysis, gave Trump about a 15% chance of becoming President.  It now puts the odds at near 40%.  Rarely have the odds of Trump's election been higher. 

At the same time, it should quickly be added that Silver has never had Trump the favorite.  In addition, the well-rehearsed narrative of high disapproval ratings of both Clinton and Trump, and the general disdain for both parties, the two leading third-party candidates are polling less than half of Ross Perot's nearly 19% share of the popular vote in 1992. 

Surveys indicate that nearly 20% of the electorate is either undecided or does not plan on voting this year.  The first of three presidential debates Monday night is expected to draw a large audience, but whether it will help the undecided decide or change many minds, is a different story.  Although momentum has favored Trump since the start of the month, it seemed to stall at the end of last week.”