RBNZ: Market pricing for a November OCR cut currently stands at 82% - Westpac

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the market pricing for a November OCR cut has been fairly stable over the past week, currently at 82%.

Key Quotes

“Q3 CPI data was unsurprising to RBNZ forecasts, although it did surprise a number of analysts who expected something lower.

Markets have consistently priced in a greater than 50% chance of a November cut since Assistant Governor McDermott’s speech in September reminding all that the “promised” cut remains in the pipeline. So what could spook them from cutting? A sharp rise in inflation expectations on 2 Nov (unlikely, given CPI is running at only 0.2%/yr), or a plunge in the NZD, come to mind.”