Election Update: Clinton has a 93% probability of winning - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explained that the third and last presidential debate was by far the most substantive debate we have had between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Key Quotes:

"With more in depth discussion of the major issues, clear policy differences emerged."

"On economic policy, Trump stayed on course promoting his agenda for large tax cuts to stimulate the economy. Clinton reiterated her “deficit-neutral” economic plan to increase infrastructure spending and other programs, which would be offset by higher taxes on the wealthy."

"However, little new information came out during the debate as both candidates essentially reiterated their agendas and there were no huge gaffs by either candidate. In this context, we doubt that the last debate will change the current state of the race materially."

"Clinton has a commanding lead in most national polls and has performed well in “swing” states in recent weeks."

"Currently, The New York Times “Upshot” blog gives Clinton a 93% probability of winning the election, while FiveThirtyEight’s “Polls-Only” model put the probability at 86.1%.With the presidential race in the home stretch and Trump’s polling numbers showing little upward trend, it appears that Clinton is likely to win the presidency."

"Yet, whether Clinton could effectively push forward her agendas appears to depend on the result of the congressional elections."