EUR/USD risks point to the downside – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair faces downside risks in the near term.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD is struggling to clear resistance at 1.1123, the August and September lows and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from May (1.1144). Above here lies the 1.1196 6 month resistance line and the top of the cloud at 1.1217. This should hold and provoke failure. Dips lower will find that the 20 day ma at 1.0994 offers initial support ahead of 1.0950 and the 1.0821 March low. Near term risks are shifting to the downside”.

“Should a close be seen above the 1.1196/1.1217 downtrend (this will also be above the 200 day ma and the 55 day ma as well) this would negate downside pressure and initiate gains towards the 1.1366 August 2016 high”.