Would a Trump win/Clinton defeat be a Black Swan for the markets? – FXStreet Survey

Research Team at FXStreet, tried to grasp the sentiment of their experts to grasp the amount of certitude in the markets of a Hillary Clinton win.

Key Quotes

“This is probably the question most affected by the developments of the last week, as markets have been pricing out a bit the priorly viewed as a widely expected outcome.

It is interesting to note, though, that the Black Swan event scenario didn’t take the lead in the answers even with all-but-one experts viewing Clinton as the candidate to be elected. Barbara Rockefeller, President of Rockefeller Treasury Services, explains why: “A black swan is something we have never imagined. Alas, we can imagine Trump. A better term would be ‘a horrible shock’.” That was a quite popular reasoning. David Morrison essentially agrees: “I’m not sure it would be a Black Swan as you can still get odds on it. But there’s no doubt that the markets are pricing in a Clinton win. Consequently, a Trump win would be perhaps even more of a shock than the UK referendum result”. Piers Curran, Head of Trading at Amplify Trading, had the same view: “Not a Black Swan event as we are aware of this risk - but markets are basically 99% priced for Clinton win”. So, expect a Trump win to be a “big shock” to the markets, but not a Black Swan.

Still, it is worth mentioning that there were also experts foreseeing such an event. Joseph Trevisani had a brief but tough answer: “Yes, a Trump win would be a Black Swan of major proportion”. On the opposite side, Chris Pulver, a trading veteran and analyst, reminded another factor to cope: even if a big surprise happened, a Black Swan event “is not likely as central banks want price stability”. Nope, central bankers are not getting a pass even when they have close-to-nothing-to-do with the topic.”

Click here to get more insights about the US Elections from FXStreet’s latest in house survey titled “FXSurvey: Trump and Clinton divisive for markets in the short term, but will it matter in the long run?”