Citi on US election: Expect a Clinton victory with divided government

Analysts at Citibank came out with their latest note on the US election hours before the US vote, making a case for a Clinton win.

Key Quotes:

“Base case is for a Clinton victory with divided government.”

“Checks and balances in the US political system imply that likely policies in the new administration will substantially diverge from campaign promises.”

“Under a potential President Clinton, US economic policies would probably remain unchanged.”

“US growth would likely be around 2% until end-2017, while global growth would likely pick up to 2.8% in 2017 from 2.4% in 2016.”

“A potential Trump victory would bear larger uncertainties, which could initially weaken aggregate demand in the US, even though the probability of fiscal loosening would probably be larger.”

“Global growth is quite sensitive to US financial conditions and policy uncertainty and a scenario where financial conditions tighten persistently and US policy uncertainty rises significantly could push global growth below 2%.”

To learn more about this topic, check our video analysis