US Elections: Markets seem increasingly confident of a Clinton victory - BBH

Research Team at BBH, suggests that the US polls open shortly and the markets seem increasingly confident of a Clinton victory, with equities mostly higher today and the Mexican peso hanging on to its recent gains.  

Key Quotes

“We suspect activity will remain subdued during the North American session, with Asia likely to see the most election-related action tonight.

We identify the key swing states as Florida (29 Electoral College votes), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), and Ohio (18).  We believe early outcomes in the Eastern swing states could allow us to infer Trump’s chances overall.  Of these 7 swing states, all but two of them (Georgia and North Carolina) voted for Obama in 2012.  Real Clear Politics has all 7 as “Toss Ups.”  Florida with 29 Electoral College votes is key.  

Trump has to win close to a clean sweep of these swing states in order to get the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, and so any early failures will set the tone.  The polls will close at 7 PM ET in Georgia and Virginia, 730 PM ET in North Carolina and Ohio, and 8 PM ET in Pennsylvania.  Florida has two time zones, so polls will close at 7 and 8 PM ET.  So too does Michigan, and so polls will close at 8 and 9 PM ET.  

Some of the battleground states could be called as early as between 8 and 9 PM ET if early results show a clear win by either candidate.  If these races are a close call, however, then the winner might not be called until 10 or 11 PM ET.  Either way, Asian markets will bear the brunt of any big market moves as a result of the elections.”